Graphite Electrode 2023H1 Market Inventory

1,Market overview

In 2023H1, the market demand for graphite electrodes showed a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price of graphite electrodes had to be lowered. In the first quarter, the graphite electrode market had a brief "rejuvenation". In February, as the price of raw material petroleum coke continued to rise, the center of gravity of graphite electrode prices moved up, but the good times did not last long. In late March, the price of raw materials did not continue to rise but turned down. The demand performance is not good, and the price of graphite electrodes is loose. After entering the second quarter, with the further increase of short-process steel mills' losses and limited production, the overall sales of the graphite electrode industry are sluggish, and internal competition for orders has begun to compete for resources at low prices. .

2,supply and demand analysis

supply side

According to the statistics of Xinyu Information, the operating rate of China's graphite electrode industry in H1 will remain low in 2023. In the first half of the year, the total output of China's graphite electrodes was 384,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.99%. Among them, the output of graphite electrode head manufacturers decreased by about 10% year-on-year, the output of the second and third echelon manufacturers decreased by 15%-35%, and even the output of some small and medium-sized graphite electrode manufacturers decreased by as much as 70-90%.

In the first half of 2023, China's graphite electrode production will first increase and then decrease. Starting from the second quarter, as steel mills shut down for maintenance and maintenance, graphite electrode enterprises will be negative in production. They will basically control production and reduce production or balance profits by producing other graphite products. Supply is significantly reduced.

In 2023, H1 China's graphite electrode industry output CR10 reached 68.23%, maintaining a relatively high degree of concentration. Although the output of my country's graphite electrode industry has declined significantly, the industry concentration has continued to increase.

demand side

In the first half of 2023, the overall demand for graphite electrodes remains weak.

In terms of steel use, the poor performance of the steel market and the accumulation of finished product inventories have led to a decrease in the willingness of steel mills to start operations. In the second quarter, the electric furnace steel mills in the central-southern, southwest, and northern China regions could not bear the pressure of cost inversion, and chose to stop production and limit production, resulting in a decrease in demand for graphite electrodes. , The demand continues for a long process and just needs sporadic replenishment, the market volume is limited, and the procurement performance of graphite electrodes is not good.

In terms of non-steel, the metal silicon and yellow phosphorus markets performed weakly in the first half of the year. Some small and medium-sized silicon factories have seen their profits shrink sharply, and their production rhythm has also slowed down. The overall demand for ordinary power graphite electrodes is average.

3,price analysis

In the first half of 2023, the market price of graphite electrodes has dropped significantly, and each wave of decline is caused by the decline in market demand.

From the perspective of the first quarter, after the Spring Festival holiday in January, some graphite electrode manufacturers stopped working and had a holiday, and their intention to start work was not high. Turning down, superimposed on the poor performance of downstream demand, the price of graphite electrodes loosened.

After entering the second quarter, the prices of upstream raw material low-sulfur petroleum coke, coal tar pitch, and needle coke all began to fall, and the losses of downstream electric furnace steel mills increased. Under the suspension of production and production reduction, the demand for graphite electrodes decreased again, and graphite electrode manufacturers were forced to Low prices seized the market, causing the price of graphite electrodes to drop significantly.

2023H1 China graphite electrode price trend (yuan/ton)

4,Import and export analysis

From January to June 2023, my country exported a total of 150,800 tons of graphite electrodes. Compared with the same period in 2022, the export volume increased by 6.03%. Influenced by the war and EU anti-dumping, the proportion of Chinese graphite electrodes exported to Russia increased in 2023H1, while the proportion exported to EU countries decreased.

5,Outlook

The recent Politburo meeting set the tone for economic work in the second half of the year to seek progress while maintaining stability. Policies will continue to be light on consumption and investment, and the real estate policy will likely continue to be optimized. Under this stimulus, the market's expectations for the domestic economic situation in the second half of the year are also increasing. Turning to optimism, the demand in the steel industry will recover to a certain extent, but it will take time for the terminal demand to be boosted and transmitted to the graphite electrode market. However, driven by the rise in raw materials in August, it is expected that the price of graphite electrodes will usher in an inflection point. It is expected that in the second half of the year The price of domestic graphite electrodes will be stable and upward.